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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 3 at the 49

New Orleans Saints 0 – Miami Dolphins 7

What Actually Happened

(2:08) 32-K.Kroeger punts 38 yards to MIA 11, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 6-M.Washington.

The Three Options

GO -0.08 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.75 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 49, worth -3.01 EP
KICK -1.70 EP
  • 31% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.28 EP
  • 69% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 49, worth -3.02 EP
PUNT -0.62 EP
What Happened
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 14, worth -0.62 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.54 EP