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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 2 at the 51

Atlanta Falcons 0 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(11:52) 13-B.Pinion punts 36 yards to NYJ 15, Center-49-L.McCullough, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO +0.31 EP
Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.55 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 51, worth -3.19 EP
KICK -1.99 EP
  • 28% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.13 EP
  • 72% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 49, worth -3.20 EP
PUNT -0.87 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 14, worth -0.87 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.18 EP