Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 12 at the 57

Miami Dolphins 16 – New Orleans Saints 8

(:22) 16-J.Bailey punts 45 yards to NO 12, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 11-D.Pettis.

The Three Options

GO -1.23 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.77 EP
69% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 57, worth -3.04 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model