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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 12 at the 32

Atlanta Falcons 14 – New York Jets 14

What Actually Happened

(4:51) 45-Z.Gonzalez 50 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +0.24 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.55 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 32, worth -1.57 EP
KICK +0.56 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 75% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.50 EP
  • 25% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 42, worth -2.28 EP
PUNT -0.21 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model