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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 3 at the 34

Cincinnati Bengals 26 – Baltimore Ravens 14

What Actually Happened

(9:30) 2-E.McPherson 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-W.Wagner, Holder-8-R.Rehkow.

The Three Options

GO +0.86 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.65 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 34, worth -2.02 EP
KICK -0.02 EP
What Happened
  • 69% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.15 EP
  • 31% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 44, worth -2.63 EP
PUNT -0.88 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.88 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.88 EP