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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 1 at the 18

Los Angeles Chargers 7 – Las Vegas Raiders 0

What Actually Happened

(6:37) (Shotgun) 30-K.Vidal left guard to LV 18 for no gain (45-D.White; 69-A.Butler).

The Three Options

GO +2.97 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +4.87 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 18, worth -0.80 EP
KICK +1.35 EP
  • 94% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.53 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 28, worth -1.36 EP
PUNT -0.42 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model