Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 9 at the 69

Atlanta Falcons 24 – New York Jets 24

(1:36) 13-B.Pinion punts 55 yards to NYJ 14, Center-49-L.McCullough, downed by ATL-35-N.Brooks.

The Three Options

GO -1.21 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.46 EP
62% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 69, worth -2.88 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model