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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 4 at the 24

Cincinnati Bengals 3 – Baltimore Ravens 7

What Actually Happened

(11:28) 2-E.McPherson 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-W.Wagner, Holder-8-R.Rehkow.

The Three Options

GO +1.37 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.36 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 24, worth -1.05 EP
KICK +1.08 EP
What Happened
  • 87% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.50 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 34, worth -1.76 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model