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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 8 at the 50

Jacksonville Jaguars 25 – Tennessee Titans 3

What Actually Happened

(5:25) 9-L.Cooke punts 45 yards to TEN 5, Center-46-R.Matiscik, fair catch by 17-C.Dike.

The Three Options

GO -0.30 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +2.99 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 50, worth -2.30 EP
KICK -1.02 EP
  • 31% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
  • 69% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.30 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
What Happened
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 14, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model