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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 15 at the 47

Buffalo Bills 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 0

What Actually Happened

(3:27) 19-M.Wishnowsky punts 47 yards to end zone, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.00 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.68 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 47, worth -2.90 EP
KICK -1.71 EP
  • 31% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.27 EP
  • 69% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 49, worth -3.03 EP
PUNT -0.61 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 13, worth -0.61 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model