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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 7 at the 21

Miami Dolphins 7 – New Orleans Saints 0

What Actually Happened

(14:13) 47-R.Patterson 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

The Three Options

GO +1.49 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +5.14 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 21, worth -0.48 EP
KICK +1.62 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.91 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 31, worth -1.16 EP
PUNT +0.19 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth +0.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model