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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 4 at the 72

Baltimore Ravens 7 – Cincinnati Bengals 12

What Actually Happened

(12:57) 11-J.Stout punts 43 yards to CIN 29, Center-46-N.Moore. 82-M.Tinsley to CIN 39 for 10 yards (39-K.Jackson; 88-C.Kolar).

The Three Options

GO -1.00 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.77 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 72, worth -4.13 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.32 EP
What Happened
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 30, worth -1.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.33 EP