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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 1 at the 32

Cincinnati Bengals 3 – Baltimore Ravens 7

What Actually Happened

(13:06) 9-J.Burrow up the middle to BAL 30 for 2 yards (0-R.Smith; 14-K.Hamilton).

The Three Options

GO +2.07 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.73 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 32, worth -1.51 EP
KICK +0.56 EP
  • 74% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.56 EP
  • 26% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 42, worth -2.21 EP
PUNT +0.02 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth +0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model