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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 1 at the 43

Miami Dolphins 19 – New Orleans Saints 11

What Actually Happened

(3:05) 64-D.Brunskill reported in as eligible. 31-O.Gordon left guard to NO 44 for -1 yards (4-K.McKinstry).

The Three Options

GO +0.92 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +2.05 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 43, worth -1.65 EP
KICK -0.34 EP
  • 46% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.64 EP
  • 54% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 49, worth -2.03 EP
PUNT -0.50 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 12, worth -0.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model