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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 5 at the 60

New York Jets 7 – Atlanta Falcons 7

What Actually Happened

(13:55) 14-A.McNamara punts 55 yards to ATL 5, Center-42-T.Hennessy, downed by NYJ-37-Q.Stiggers.

The Three Options

GO -0.78 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.55 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 60, worth -3.40 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.67 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 19, worth -0.67 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model