Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 4 at the 60

New Orleans Saints 0 – Miami Dolphins 7

(6:37) 32-K.Kroeger punts 60 yards to end zone, Center-49-Z.Wood, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.96 EP

48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +1.89 EP
52% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 60, worth -3.54 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model