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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 8 at the 9

Buffalo Bills 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 7

What Actually Happened

(:55) 15-M.Prater 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-19-M.Wishnowsky.

The Three Options

GO +2.11 EP
Model's Pick
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.33 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 9, worth -0.04 EP
KICK +1.76 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.83 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.62 EP
PUNT -0.10 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP