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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 2 at the 48

New York Jets 0 – Atlanta Falcons 0

What Actually Happened

(7:19) 14-A.McNamara punts 38 yards to ATL 10, Center-42-T.Hennessy, downed by NYJ-37-Q.Stiggers.

The Three Options

GO +0.86 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +3.20 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 48, worth -2.37 EP
KICK -0.88 EP
  • 35% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.08 EP
  • 65% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 49, worth -2.46 EP
PUNT +0.16 EP
What Happened
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 14, worth +0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.70 EP