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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 13 at the 73

Las Vegas Raiders 7 – Los Angeles Chargers 14

What Actually Happened

(7:35) 6-A.Cole punts 51 yards to LAC 22, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer. 12-D.Davis to LAC 40 for 18 yards (55-C.Lindenberg).

The Three Options

GO -2.58 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.93 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 73, worth -4.37 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.50 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 31, worth -1.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model