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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 12 at the 72

Philadelphia Eagles 13 – Buffalo Bills 6

What Actually Happened

(3:29) 10-B.Mann punts 55 yards to BUF 17, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 10-K.Shakir.

The Three Options

GO -2.00 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.40 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 72, worth -3.78 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.17 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 30, worth -1.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model