4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 1 at the 24

Jacksonville Jaguars 17 – Indianapolis Colts 17

What Actually Happened

(9:30) 64-W.Milum reported in as eligible. 16-T.Lawrence up the middle to IND 24 for no gain (95-A.Adebawore). (Virtual Measurement).

The Three Options

GO +2.41 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.17 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 24, worth -1.53 EP
KICK +0.81 EP
  • 89% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.15 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 34, worth -2.03 EP
PUNT -0.88 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.88 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model