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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 7 at the 70

New England Patriots 42 – New York Jets 10

What Actually Happened

(12:57) 17-B.Baringer punts 48 yards to NYJ 22, Center-47-J.Ashby, fair catch by 18-I.Williams.

The Three Options

GO -1.21 EP
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.86 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 70, worth -3.77 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -0.98 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 28, worth -0.98 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model