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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 1 at the 3

Detroit Lions 0 – Minnesota Vikings 7

What Actually Happened

(3:16) 5-D.Montgomery right tackle to MIN 2 for 1 yard (55-E.Wilson). Minnesota challenged the first down ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #2.)

The Three Options

GO +4.10 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.23 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 3, worth -0.06 EP
KICK +1.46 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.49 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 21, worth -0.67 EP
PUNT -0.19 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model