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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 1 at the 17

Carolina Panthers 0 – Seattle Seahawks 3

What Actually Happened

(3:50) 10-R.Fitzgerald 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-6-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +2.85 EP
Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.84 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 17, worth -0.75 EP
KICK +1.34 EP
What Happened
  • 94% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.49 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 27, worth -1.23 EP
PUNT -0.53 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.51 EP