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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 7 at the 87

Indianapolis Colts 10 – Jacksonville Jaguars 7

What Actually Happened

(1:03) 8-R.Sanchez punts 50 yards to JAX 37, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 11-P.Washington to JAX 40 for 3 yards (16-A.Dulin).

The Three Options

GO -2.55 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +0.60 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 87, worth -4.84 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (104 yards).

PUNT -1.80 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 45, worth -1.80 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model