4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 14 at the 73

Seattle Seahawks 0 – Carolina Panthers 0

What Actually Happened

(10:48) 4-M.Dickson punts 53 yards to CAR 20, Center-41-C.Stoll, fair catch by 15-Ji.Horn.

The Three Options

GO -2.40 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.71 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 73, worth -4.48 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.75 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 31, worth -1.75 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model