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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 6 at the 25

New Orleans Saints 0 – Tennessee Titans 3

What Actually Happened

(7:41) 39-C.Smyth 43 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-32-K.Kroeger.

The Three Options

GO +0.92 EP
Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.65 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 25, worth -1.30 EP
KICK +0.76 EP
What Happened
  • 85% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.28 EP
  • 15% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 35, worth -2.21 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model