4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 4 at the 52

New York Jets 10 – New England Patriots 42

What Actually Happened

(1:56) (Shotgun) 4-B.Cook pass short right to 84-S.Smartt to NE 40 for 12 yards (24-D.Pettus).

The Three Options

GO -0.13 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +1.90 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 52, worth -1.80 EP
KICK -0.69 EP
  • 29% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.94 EP
  • 71% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 49, worth -1.76 EP
PUNT -0.54 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 15, worth -0.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model