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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 6 at the 15

Indianapolis Colts 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

What Actually Happened

(11:18) 10-B.Grupe 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

The Three Options

GO +1.93 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +5.53 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 15, worth -0.07 EP
KICK +1.91 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.03 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 25, worth -0.59 EP
PUNT +0.31 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth +0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model