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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 20 at the 50

Minnesota Vikings 13 – Detroit Lions 7

What Actually Happened

(13:03) 17-R.Wright punts 41 yards to DET 9, Center-42-A.DePaola. 11-K.Raymond pushed ob at DET 16 for 7 yards (0-I.Pace).

The Three Options

GO -1.12 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.90 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 50, worth -2.66 EP
KICK -1.03 EP
  • 37% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.75 EP
  • 63% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 49, worth -2.66 EP
PUNT -0.43 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 14, worth -0.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model