Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 13 at the 68

Indianapolis Colts 17 – Jacksonville Jaguars 17

(14:12) 8-R.Sanchez punts 40 yards to JAX 28, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 11-P.Washington to JAX 30 for 2 yards (35-J.Edwards).

The Three Options

GO -1.75 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.38 EP
70% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 68, worth -3.55 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model