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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 8 at the 97

Philadelphia Eagles 13 – Buffalo Bills 0

What Actually Happened

(:13) 10-B.Mann punts 50 yards to BUF 47, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 10-K.Shakir ran ob at PHI 41 for 12 yards (28-W.Shipley).

The Three Options

GO -3.67 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 89, worth -0.52 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 97, worth -6.14 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (114 yards).

PUNT -3.00 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 53, worth -3.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model