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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 11 at the 21

New York Jets 0 – New England Patriots 21

What Actually Happened

(9:59) 6-N.Folk 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-14-A.McNamara.

The Three Options

GO +0.74 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.33 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 21, worth -0.87 EP
KICK +1.41 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.67 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 31, worth -1.41 EP
PUNT -0.26 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model