Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 9 at the 64

Carolina Panthers 0 – Seattle Seahawks 3

(2:00) 6-S.Martin punts 48 yards to SEA 16, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 22-R.Shaheed.

The Three Options

GO -1.36 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.60 EP
66% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 64, worth -3.42 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model