4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 17 at the 59

Buffalo Bills 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 0

What Actually Happened

(8:46) 19-M.Wishnowsky punts 46 yards to PHI 13, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 18-B.Covey.

The Three Options

GO -1.18 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +3.40 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 59, worth -2.88 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.31 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 18, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model