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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 2 at the 23

New England Patriots 42 – New York Jets 3

What Actually Happened

(1:52) 36-A.Borregales 41 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-17-B.Baringer.

The Three Options

GO +2.26 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.41 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 23, worth -1.03 EP
KICK +1.18 EP
What Happened
  • 90% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.51 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 33, worth -1.70 EP
PUNT -0.20 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.09 EP