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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 7 at the 62

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10 – Miami Dolphins 20

What Actually Happened

(12:47) 9-R.Dixon punts 58 yards to MIA 4, Center-86-E.Deckers, downed by TB-32-J.Hayes.

The Three Options

GO -1.16 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.18 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 62, worth -3.36 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.86 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 21, worth -0.86 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model