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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 11 at the 57

Tennessee Titans 26 – New Orleans Saints 34

What Actually Happened

(:26) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass short left to 5-E.Ayomanor to NO 43 for 14 yards (4-K.McKinstry).

The Three Options

GO -0.53 EP
What Happened
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +0.88 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 57, worth -1.14 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.12 EP
Model's Pick
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 17, worth -0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.41 EP