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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 11 at the 51

Indianapolis Colts 17 – Jacksonville Jaguars 20

What Actually Happened

(3:11) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass incomplete short left to 14-A.Pierce (6-G.Newsome).

The Three Options

GO -0.70 EP
What Happened
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +2.21 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 51, worth -2.00 EP
KICK -0.69 EP
  • 35% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
  • 65% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 49, worth -2.00 EP
PUNT -0.42 EP
Model's Pick
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 14, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model