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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 3 at the 79

Minnesota Vikings 7 – Detroit Lions 7

What Actually Happened

(9:44) 17-R.Wright punts 46 yards to DET 33, Center-42-A.DePaola. 11-K.Raymond pushed ob at DET 36 for 3 yards (36-Z.Scott).

The Three Options

GO -1.39 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 76, worth +1.00 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 79, worth -4.49 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

PUNT -1.81 EP
What Happened
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 36, worth -1.81 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.42 EP