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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 4 at the 74

New Orleans Saints 0 – Tennessee Titans 6

What Actually Happened

(2:15) 32-K.Kroeger punts 38 yards to TEN 36, Center-49-Z.Wood, downed by NO-7-T.Hill.

The Three Options

GO -1.69 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.07 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 74, worth -4.49 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -1.80 EP
What Happened
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 32, worth -1.80 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model