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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 10 at the 84

Philadelphia Eagles 13 – Buffalo Bills 0

What Actually Happened

(6:14) 10-B.Mann punts 62 yards to BUF 22, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 10-K.Shakir ran ob at BUF 32 for 10 yards (21-S.Brown; 28-W.Shipley).

The Three Options

GO -2.86 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +0.45 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 84, worth -4.95 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

PUNT -2.32 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 42, worth -2.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model