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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 1 at the 49

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10 – Miami Dolphins 20

What Actually Happened

(4:31) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 14-C.Godwin pushed ob at MIA 38 for 11 yards (40-W.Gay).

The Three Options

GO +0.97 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.33 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 49, worth -2.16 EP
KICK -0.69 EP
  • 37% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
  • 63% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 49, worth -2.17 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 14, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model