Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 12 at the 40

Tennessee Titans 23 – New Orleans Saints 20

What Actually Happened

(12:55) 6-J.Slye 58 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-3-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO -0.26 EP

27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.26 EP
73% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 40, worth -1.92 EP

KICK -0.39 EP

What Happened

51% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.76 EP
49% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 49, worth -2.64 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model