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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 8 at the 71

Detroit Lions 7 – Minnesota Vikings 13

What Actually Happened

(9:01) 3-J.Fox punts 70 yards to MIN 1, Center-49-H.Hatten, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.70 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.73 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 71, worth -4.06 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.35 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 29, worth -1.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model