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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 8 at the 44

Buffalo Bills 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 7

What Actually Happened

(11:07) 19-M.Wishnowsky punts 36 yards to PHI 8, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 18-B.Covey. PENALTY on BUF-28-S.Franklin, Fair Catch Interference, 15 yards, enforced at PHI 8.

The Three Options

GO -0.02 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.76 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 44, worth -2.20 EP
KICK -0.63 EP
  • 47% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.70 EP
  • 53% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 49, worth -2.69 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
What Happened
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 12, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EP