Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 16 at the 71

Miami Dolphins 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0

(13:09) 16-J.Bailey punts 54 yards to TB 17, Center-49-J.Cardona. 19-K.Johnson pushed ob at TB 32 for 15 yards (16-J.Bailey).

The Three Options

GO -1.92 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.90 EP
70% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 71, worth -3.94 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model