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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 6 at the 50

New York Jets 3 – New England Patriots 35

What Actually Happened

(11:50) (Punt formation) Direct snap to 32-I.Davis. 32-I.Davis left end to NYJ 47 for -3 yards (94-C.Durden, 44-K.Chaisson).

The Three Options

GO -0.52 EP
What Happened
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +3.13 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 50, worth -2.78 EP
KICK -1.28 EP
  • 33% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.69 EP
  • 67% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 49, worth -2.78 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 14, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model