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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 9 at the 82

Arizona Cardinals 7 – Cincinnati Bengals 30

What Actually Happened

(6:34) 39-M.Haack punts 54 yards to CIN 28, Center-46-A.Brewer. 12-K.Williams to CIN 41 for 13 yards (27-A.Davis-Gaither; 30-D.Hall). PENALTY on CIN-33-D.Anthony, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CIN 28.

The Three Options

GO -2.61 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +0.83 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 82, worth -4.93 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

PUNT -2.11 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 40, worth -2.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model