4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 4 at the 79

Houston Texans 14 – Los Angeles Chargers 3

What Actually Happened

(11:59) 6-T.Townsend punts 55 yards to LAC 24, Center-40-A.Brinkman. 15-L.McConkey to LAC 30 for 6 yards (31-D.Clark).

The Three Options

GO -1.88 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +0.89 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 79, worth -4.65 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

PUNT -2.09 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 36, worth -2.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model